Climate Corner: How El Niño is an opportunity for climate and development practitioners

On July 28^th, 2015 the BRACED Knowledge Manager held a discussion forum titled, “El Nino – your questions answered” that brought together climate experts, researchers, disaster managers and others to ask questions about the ongoing El Nino, a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that has implications for weather around the world.  Before we get into the details of the discussion, here are some important facts to know about El Nino.

The Current State of El Nino

We are in the midst of a moderate El Nino that most climate models are predicting will strengthen in the coming months.  In addition to its strength factor, it’s important to understand how long this El Nino will last, since for some regions the signs of the impact (wetter or drier, warmer or cooler), and the amount of influence El Nino exerts on weather may change depending on the season. The probability of El Nino persisting through the end of November is 99%, and the likelihood of it staying for the rest of the year is at or above 95%. In other words, climate scientists are pretty certain that El Nino is currently impacting the weather in many parts of the world, and will continue to do so until at least the end of the year.

What is ‘El Nino’ and why should we care?

El Nino is characterized by an unusual warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean near Peru that occurs every two to seven years, and causes weather patterns to shift in a (mostly) predictable way

The current seasonal forecast above indicates how El Nino - and to a lesser degree, other climate patterns - are predicted to impact different regions of the world during the 3-month period from August to October. Parts of West Africa have a slightly increased chance of being usually dry, while parts of East Africa have a moderate to highly increased chance of observing an unusually wet season. The impacts of El Nino are seasonal, so the signals that we see right now may change or reverse in the coming months, so it’s important to keep checking back for updates.

El Nino provides an opportunity for climate scientists to provide seasonal forecast information that is more accurate, and for more locations across the world than in non-El Nino years.

This translates into an unparalleled opportunity for climate and development practitioners – including the BRACED community and its partners - to be on the forefront of taking innovative and meaningful action to prepare for potentially more extreme climate events this year. This can translate into a number of tangible activities including activating contingency plans, and preparedness actions that can greatly reduce the number of people negatively impacted by climate extremes.

By setting standard operating procedures that trigger actions like moving livestock to higher ground based on a flood forecast, we can ensure that the next time El Nino causes unusual weather conditions, we will already have standard procedures in place for dealing with it.  Connecting local communities to climate and weather information, and empowering them to take no-regrets actions based on this information can help BRACED meet its aim of strengthening resilience in project areas.

Highlights of the Q&A

The discussion forum also gave Implementing Partners the opportunity to share their experiences, and ask questions. It served a dual purpose to also provide insights for the BRACED Knowledge Manager on the climate and weather information needs of Implementing Partners in the BRACED programme.

Highlights of the Q&A include a question from Jen Abdella, Senior Practice Area Lead from the Near East Foundation, on expected El Nino impacts in West Africa and where to find more information on forecasts. In response, the facilitating team (composed of climate scientists from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre) replied that the typical impacts of El Nino in West Africa include reduced rainfall, and delayed onset of rains that can lead to drought and food insecurity.  However, it was also mentioned that El Nino is not the only climate phenomena at work and advised participants to look at seasonal forecasts that display the sum of how all of the different climate patterns interact with one another to impact your region.

Nathalie Koffi, of ENDA Energie, asked a key question on how to share information on El Nino with local communities, to which Erin Coughlan, Senior Climate Scientist from the Climate Centre recommended engaging in discussion with local communities about “how the upcoming forecast could affect their livelihoods. What risks might it pose if the rain is unusually high or low?”

Aliou Diouf, Programme Officer for ENDA Energie and member of the BRACED Knowledge Manager followed up by sharing an example of how climate information is shared with communities in Mali and Senegal. He said, “Weekly climate information is used by the Met Service experts and shared through a local mechanism that partners with local authorities, religious authorities, farmers, and agricultural extension services. This local mechanism is in charge of spreading climate information to all villages covered by the project.”

One of the outcomes of this discussion forum will be the organization of a public webinar, requested by many of the participants. This webinar will provide more detailed information on El Nino, including where to get forecasts, how to monitor impacts, uncertainty in forecasts, and how to translate forecasts into contingency plans for BRACED projects that may be exposed to additional risk because of El Nino.  More information about this webinar will be provided in the coming days, so watch this space!

For BRACED Implementing Partners, this discussion will continue in the Learning Lounge where more questions can be asked of Climate Centre experts, especially in regard to how El Nino may affect specific BRACED projects.

All Discussion Fora are open to the public. We welcome all ideas for additional discussion forums, webinars, or blog topics. Please email them to learning@resilienceexchange.net